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Local Representativeness and the St. Petersburg Paradox Summary

In the context of coin tossing, the local representativeness effect gives rise to alternation bias, whereby negatively autocorrelated sequences are perceived as maximally random and the runs characteristic of unbiased memoryless Bernoulli processes are perceived as being excessively regular to be random. Thus as a consequence of the local representativeness effect, a negative subjective autocorrelation is associated with tosses of fair, memoryless coins. Given this negative subjective autocorrelation, the expected value of the St. Petersburg prospect is finite. Moreover, this expected value falls within the empirically-determined range of what people are typically willing to pay for the St. Petersburg gamble.

Author : Kim Kaivanto

Publisher : SSRN

Published : 2006

ISBN-10 :

ISBN-13 :

Number of Pages : 7 Pages

Language : en

Keyword :

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